• Determine the data you need to understand systemic risks
• Identify the relationships that lead to cascading risks
• Discuss ways do develop workflows of flows of risks
• Identify the locations most likely to trigger cascading failures
• Identify the types of risks associated with the failures
• Describe methods of analyzing cascading risks using several analytical techniques
• Explain how a Bayesian analysis can be effective for identifying relationships
Unit Presentation:
Video: https://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cqVZhl3Ozi
PDF (contains links to readings, etc.) http://zenzebra.net/risk/risk-management-nash-pt2.pdf
Scenario 2: Cascading Risks: Workflows for Risks
Joseph works for Wolf Midstream, which recently diversified into solar and wind energy to generate electricity for the grid in northeastern Texas and southwest Arkansas.
Things have been going well. However, the weather forecast says there is a high likelihood of a tornado outbreak near their solar panel farm and also near the Wolf wind farm. Wolf Midstream is connected with Lone Wolf Electric, which owns transmission lines into the small towns and rural homes.
The leadership of Wolf wants a report that provides 3 different scenarios for different levels of storms. They want to know what all the potential impacts will be, and how they will affect each other.
Your Task: Help Joseph develop a map that shows how damage in one place will affect other places, resulting in causal chains, and cascading failures.
What will Joseph need?
Which data does she need to collect?
What kind of maps should she build?
Use a diagram to show with arrows the cascading failures.
Then, mark on a map where the problems will occur (after you’ve completed the diagrams).
You may wish to create 4 different maps:
Stage 1: Initial impact
Stage 2: Secondary impact
Stage 3: What happens after Stage 2 failures occur
Stage 4: Final level of outcomes (long-term consequences).
Readings:
“Risk relationships and cascading relationships in critical infrastructures”
https://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2015/en/bgdocs/McGee%20et%20al.,%202014.pdf
Destruction of infrastructure => disruption of supply chain => disruptions in global / local manufacturing (or mining, etc.)
Bottlenecks (constraints)
Strategic Supply Chain Mapping Approaches
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/6cd0/25fd30d1441935eb8bd6f1511cdc22cc0294.pdf
Mapping Supply Chain Constraints in LPG
Analysis of Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) Shortage in Ghana: Case of the Ashanti Region
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267245130_Analysis_of_Liquefied_Petroleum_Gas_LPG_Shortage_in_Ghana_A_Case_of_the_Ashanti_Region
Illustration:
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Structure-and-mapping-of-LPG-supply-chain_fig3_267245130
Interventions
Bayesian networks: https://www.kdnuggets.com/software/bayesian.html
Bayesian Network Tools in Java: http://bnj.sourceforge.net/
Getting started: https://www.loginworks.com/blogs/how-to-perform-a-risk-assessment-with-data-analytics/
Texas AM Texarkana TAMUT MBA in Energy Leadership: Click link to apply - more information
For more information about the courses (and this full course), please contact me.
