Brexit Supply Chain Collapse: What Should Sarah Do?

Sarah Carruthers was fit to be tied. She watched with horror the way that the members of the British government argued and debated with each other, but were unable to come up with a plan to harmonize with the European Union. That mean that all imports and exports from the European Union would hit a wall of red tape, not only tariffs but of documentation, which could amount to, in some cases, upwards of a hundred documents required for a single export into the European Union.

"Don't worry! We're going to replace the European Union market with our old standby, the Commonwealth!" crowed a 20-something Brexit-er on his YouTube channel.

Sarah watched him with mounting animus. "I hope you get deplatformed!" she glowered to herself.

She thought of her own business. She had a small restaurant in the cathedral town of Bury St. Edmunds and she catered to Londoners who liked to go to farmer's markets on the weekends, and also to walk through some of Britain's most historic reaches, where assiduous treasure hunters had found hoards of Roman silver, Anglo-Saxon cloisonne and intricate braid-patterned knife hilts, hidden Catholic abbey chalices during Henry VIII's rampages, and then Georgian and Victorian knick-knacks. There were walking and biking paths, and it was altogether a historical gold mine.

"I should expand into a boutique hotel," she told herself. But with the impending Brexit shock, Londoners were scared. They were not in a mood to explore history, charming walks in nature, and fascinating churchyards immortalized by novelists and poets.

Sarah went into survival mode.

1.  She looked at what it would take to keep up her sales to Germany and France of English Shortbread and Peter Rabbit Chocolates. Most of her sales were around Easter and Christmas. Perhaps she could work with a broker.  At least she understood the anatomy of the demand.

2.  She looked at how complicated it would be to import the packaging, and other elements she used to create her hand-crafted shortbread cookies and chocolate rabbits.

Then, Phase II. She looked at how she could replace lost sales to the Commonwealth. Here were her first thoughts.  The biggest markets in the Commonwealth were India, Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and South Africa.

1.  Peter Rabbit chocolates for Easter.  Sarah had to smile (albeit through tears) at this one. Easter?  in India? Pakistan? Peter Rabbit may seem exotic, but it's not going to capture the Hindi, Muslim, or Buddhist populations.

2.  Christmas shortbread. Same problem as Peter Rabbit in South Asia.

3.  There's always Australia, South Africa, and New Zealand, right??  Sarah's heart sank. They celebrated Easter and Christmas, but the seasons were opposite, and she did not know how chocolates and shortcake were viewed.  Plus, there was the distance, and the costs of transportation.

Also, there were complications with logistics: transportation, warehousing..

And, there was the pesky issue of brand recognition and marketing -- Sarah's products were well-known in France and Germany, and, thanks to quirky and cute advertising, their jingles were a part of the culture at large.  With the Commonwealth, they'd be starting from ZERO.

Challenge: You've been hired to give Sarah advice. What should she do to keep her sales high and profitable?

Creativity and Psychological Well-Being: A Detailed Look

I came across a very interesting article that provides details about the ways in which getting involved in creative activities will help your psychological well-being. It also discusses the development of creativity and how to make yourself more resilient, particularly when going through difficult times.

Link to the podcast: https://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cqeebp0qLx


Friedman, M. B. (2014). Creativity and Psychological Well-Being. Contemporary Readings in Law and; Social Justice, 6(2), 39–58.

Purpose of the article:  
Look at how creativity contributes to mental health and where it can be most effective.  

Useful findings:  
Instead of holding to the stereotypical connection between madness and creativity, this article points out that creativity actually helps maintain mental health. 

Applicability of the article: 

• Creativity involves cultivating a skill, which increases engagement and leads to a sense of accomplishment.  It satisfies needs for accomplishment, recognition, and affiliation. 
• Artistic activities affirm and validate one’s unique identity and sense of self (and self-worth).
• There are four dimensions of the experience of art that can help one’s mental health
• Cultivating skill:  builds self-efficacy and confidence
• Immersion in activity:  generates the joy and happiness; the process is almost meditative; if done with others, it meets the need for affiliation
• Accomplishment: satisfies the need for recognition, builds sense of identity and self-efficacy
• Connection and celebration: Makes validating and emotions-sharing connections with other people
• Useful strategies for healing for those with anxiety, depression, and more.

What to Do when the Robot Comes for Your Job

It's not a matter of "if" but "when."  An excellent article published in Mother Jones breaks it down and provides a timeline of the kinds of jobs that will be replaced between now and 2040.  The article examples many of the arguments that have been used to make the predictions less apocalyptic.

Mother Jones breaks them all down. It's apocalyptic, indeed, but at least with warning, you can develop a plan.

Link to podcast: https://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cqeebb0qM1 (Links to an external site.)Links to an external site.

Drum, K., and; D, A. D. (2017). You Will Lose Your Job to a Robot. Mother Jones, 42(6), 38–69  Purpose of the article:  To address the questions about when and how AI-powered machines replace jobs, and to point out that the owners of the AI-powered machines and the businesses are the ones who will benefit most.
  Useful findings:  Machines powered by artificial intelligence will become better than humans in many different tasks. The article provides a useful timeline.
  Applicability of the article:
*Routine physical tasks will be the first to be replaced, which includes packing boxes, driving trucks, etc.
*Routine cognitive tasks will be next to be replaced (teller, phone sales)*Non-routine cognitive will be the last to be  replaced. 
 Here is a chart with a timeline showing the robot take-over.  It's not "if" but "when."

 

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When To Use Visuals in Your Report, Presentation, or Informational Social Media

What’s the quickest way to “Death By PowerPoint”?  Put together a presentation that consists only of bullet points.  Conversely, a presentation or report that consists only of visuals may seem superficial and confusing.  So, when should you use visuals? How should they be placed for maximum impact and effectiveness?

Lime or Bird? You decide.... Mexico City 2019 (photo credit: Susan Nash)

 What Is a Visual?

Generally speaking, a visual is anything that is pictoral, graphic, or semiotic.  A visual can be composed of text (a sign, etc.).  Generally speaking, visuals are graphics that may include diagrams, drawings, photographs, charts, graphs, figures, and more.

According to Patrick Cavenaugh, visual elements within a report or presentation are highly effective because they both capture the viewer’s attention and then direct or guide it. The visual architecture creates a process that then continues to arouse interest and direct attention from visual stimulus to visual stimulus (Cavanaugh, 2011).

 Video on using visuals:

When to Use a Visual

Think of your overall goal or objective in writing your report or creating your presentation.  Then, consider your audience.  What will they relate to? What will they expect?  What will resonate with their values and beliefs?

Keep in mind the following purposes of visuals:

* Instruct or persuade
* Draw attention to something immediately important
* Provide information quickly
* Engage the audience
* Keep the audience focused
* Provide accurate information concisely

Then, as you organize the content, think of the sequencing and space out the visual elements in order to maintain an optimized pace and to keep attention focused.

Roses before the storm in Mexico City. Photo credit: Susan Nash

 Audience Perspective

As you prepare your visuals, and determine where to place them, it is useful to keep in mind the following questions that your audience will have as they approach the material.

*Why is the visual here?
*What does it tell me?
* Which aspect of the visual is most important?
* Where, exactly, should I focus?
* What do these numbers or statistics mean?
* What should I be thinking or doing?
* Where does the graphic begin? Where does the information end?

How Visuals Work

Make the abstract concrete.  Your audience can more easily relate the content to their own experience.

Analyze relationships.  If the visuals appear on the same page, or next to each other, it is fairly easy to discuss how they relate to each other.  The relationships can be grasped at a glance with skillful use of design, color, pattern, and placement.

Facilitate comparisons. With visuals, it is easy to discuss to things, particularly when you locate them side by side.

Emphasize key points.  You can make key points clear using visuals.

Transcend language barriers.  It is possible to create visuals that can be communicated across language and cultural differences.

A memorial for a man who drowned in the Arkansas River, Tulsa, Oklahoma (photo credit: Susan Nash)

 What Types of Visuals to Consider

Tables.  Tables display data (as number or words) in rows and columns for comparison. 

Photographs.  Photographs can help document a place, person, or thing, and they can help emphasize the application of a concept in real life. Be sure to give proper attribution to the graphics you use, and to obtain permission.  If you use graphics that have a Creative Commons license, be sure to give it the correct attribution.

Graphs.  Graphs translate numbers into shapes, shades, and patterns by plotting two or more data sets on a coordinate system.

Maps.  Maps or grids are very helpful when discussing locations, demographics, and even the results of data mining (for example, for marketing).

Charts.  Charts depict relationships without the use of a coordinate system by using circles, rectangles, arrows, connecting lines, and other design elements.

Graphs.  Graphic illustrations are pictorial devices for helping readers visualize what something looks like, how it's done, how it happens, or where it's located. 

Maintaining Effectiveness With Visuals
After you’ve analyzed your goals and objectives, and have determined where and when to use visuals, be sure to let another person take a look at your presentation or report.  Peer review can be quite helpful – they can help you gain insight into how diverse learning styles and preferences can be accommodated by using visuals. You can also get an idea if your visuals are of the appropriate complexity.

Reference

Cavanaugh, P. (2011) Visual cognition. Vision Research. 51 (13): 1538-51. 

Entrepreneurial Passion: Taking It to the Next Level

I found a very interesting article that explains how and why people with hobbies who are entrepreneurial will take their passion to the next level and turn it into an actual job. They take the passion, transform it into entrepreneurial intent, and then they start making concrete steps to achieve their dreams. 

But.. watch out for the robots! The second part of the video discusses another article that explains how not to lose your marketing job to a robot.

 Link to a presentation / podcast:
 https://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cqeeDC0q7f




Biraglia, A., and; Kadile, V. (2017). The Role of Entrepreneurial Passion and Creativity in Developing Entrepreneurial Intentions: Insights from American Homebrewers. Journal of Small Business Management, 55(1), 170–188. 

  Purpose of the article:  How can we use creativity and entrepreneurship to adjust ourselves in difficult times?

  Useful findings:  We can apply Bandura’s Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) to understanding how and why people are entrepreneurs, and how and when they succeed.

  Learning, Motivational and Behavioral processes are the result of reciprocal and bidirectional interactions

  Environmental Inputs

  Personal Factors

  Behavioral Outcomes

Applicability of the article

• Entrepreneurial passion is often a characteristic of people who are able to turn hobbies into businesses, and they relate to a thorough knowledge of the topic and also skills and practice.

•Creativity helps a person solve problems, and thus build a sense of self-efficacy and confidence.

• Entrepreneurial self-efficacy and entrepreneurial intentions are very much influenced by feedback from the environment (awards, collaborations, and presumably financial rewards).

•To assure success in an entrepreneurial endeavor, it is important to build reinforcing feedback loops that strengthen cognitive, behavioral, and environmental factors. 

*************************

Cramer, T. (2017). How Not to Lose Your Marketing Job to a Machine. EContent, 40(5), 4–8.

  Purpose of the article:  To discuss how artificial intelligence is replacing some jobs in marketing, but creating others.

  Useful findings:  Machine learning and artificial intelligence are highly effective at conducting market research and selling, but for each task for AI, there is a need to manage it.
  Applicability of the article:
-Each AI function also needs a person who can design and manage it.
-With the proliferation of websites, it is often necessary to have a human who determines if a site is fraudulent.
-Creativity is still uniquely human. To develop strategies to grow markets, and also to tell stories still requires human beings.

 

Teaching Children How to Be Good Citizens: Interview with Sean Callahan and Russell Glass, authors of Voting with a Porpoise

Learning what voting and citizenship can be fun when children can engage with a colorful, accessible book which encourages creativity and interactivity. Welcome to an interview with Sean Callahan and Russell Glass, authors of Voting with a Porpoise. 

 
 1. What is your name and background?

Sean Callahan is a content marketer at LinkedIn. He has written several books including The Leprechaun Who Lost His Rainbow, A Wild Father’s Day and co-authored The Big Data-Driven Business. His journalism work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, and Notre Dame Magazine. Callahan lives with his wife and two daughters in Chicago. He is also a voter.

Russell Glass is a serial technology entrepreneur and author, having founded or held senior positions at four venture-backed technology companies and co-authored of The Big Data-Driven Business. He is currently the CEO of Ginger.io, an on-demand behavioral health company, and a board member of Rock the Vote where he uses his experience with technology, data science and narrative branding tactics to develop unique strategies to increase engagement and turnout among young votes. He is also a voter.

2.  What is Voting with a Porpoise?

Voting With a Porpoise is a children’s book in which the voting process is brought to life for children of all ages. While kids giggle over dolphin pod leader Finn and Petey the Porpoise, parents are reminded just how vital voting and civic engagement are for a healthy democracy.

3.  What inspired the book?

We know that young people are voting at significantly lower rates than people over 65. So we wanted to go to the next generation of voters to speak directly to them about the power that their voices can have if they chose to use them, and make voting something they feel empowered to do and positive about from the start. We wanted to find a project that we were both passionate about.

4.  Who wrote it, and what is his / her background?

Sean and Russ, see above.

5.  What are some of things you'd like to change in society?

The biggest change we'd like to see in society is more people voting. We want to change the culture around voting in the United States. We'd like to see more locales adopt the law that Sandusky, Ohio, just passed, which makes Election Day  a holiday. We'd like to have more early voting, to make it as easy as possible for us to vote. We'd like to see it become customary for Americans to register to vote on their 18th birthday, just like they get their drivers licenses when they turn 16 and have a beer when they turn 21. Ultimately, we'd like Americans to feel embarrassed not to cast their vote on Election Day. Primarily, we'd like to see more people, especially young people, make it to the voting booth. If a critical mass of people voted, politicians could no longer ignore them. Politicians serve those who get them elected. Right now, the people who have the most influence on getting politicians elected is their donors. But if more people voted, politicians would be forced to serve the people who elected them — their constituents.

6.  What kinds of changes are you seeing now?

We are seeing more people getting to the polls. In the 2018 mid-terms, Americans aged 18-29 showed up to vote. One statistic in particular shows the surge in young people voting: 3.3 million Americans under 30 voted early in the 2018 mid-terms — that's up 188% over the 2014 mid-terms. Now the trick is to turn this trend into a full-fledged change in voting culture.

7. Can you recommend other books as well?
A Day in the Life of Marlon Bundo

Written by Jill Twiss, Illustrated by EG Keller

Great comedic TV shows think alike. In this book, backed by Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, the story of Mike Pence’s rabbit, Marlon Bundo, takes an ironic turn when we discover that Marlon has fallen in love with another bunny who happens to be a boy. The book’s dedication says it all: “For every bunny who has ever felt different.”

What Can a Citizen Do?

Written by Dave Eggers, Illustrated by Shawn Harris

Dave Eggers first came into the public eye with his memoir, a Heartbreaking Work of Staggering Genius. With this book, Eggers urges young people to use their power as citizens. The School Library Journal summed up this book very well: "This must-have book distills the fundamentals of citizenship into easy-to-digest concepts and emphasizes the importance of caring for others, accepting differences, and taking action to initiate positive change." (Note that Eggers also wrote the charming “Her Right Foot,” which reminds all of us that immigration built the nation).

Risk Mgmt Unit 4: Using Blockchain to Eliminate Counterfeit Electronics: Scenarios and Simulations

Learn how to develop probabilistic models using machine learning and other analytic tools to identify and quantify risk. Identify effective ways to use scenarios and simulations, especially in a collaborative environment or context, to identify risks and manage them by using all available combinations of resources. Describe how blockchain is revolutionizing the supply chain.

Unit Presentation:

Video: 
https://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cqVZhC3OAL

PDF (contains links to readings, etc.)
http://www.zenzebra.net/risk/risk-management-nash-pt4.pdf
 
Scenario 4:  Using Blockchain to Eliminate Counterfeit Electronics: Scenarios and Simulations

Emily and Charles are worried. They’ve agreed to put sensors on all the pumps, gas gathering systems, in pipelines, injection wells, and disposal wells.

https://youtu.be/pntu4sVyOJ8

They hope to eliminate the need for field techs to have to check installations every day, and they want to be able to predict maintenance schedules, as well as where / when to maintain corrosion control, and when to replace equipment. They want to move away from a rigid schedule of maintenance and move to a more “reality based” maintenance and replacement.

However, they are worried. Their entire model depends on high-quality sensors and electronic components that do the job they’re supposed to do.

They’ve come to find out that an alarming percentage of electronic components are counterfeit, which means that they do not do what they’re supposed to do. That’s a terrifying thought when one considers that all the decisions are made based on the readings that the sensors and components deliver via the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT).

Your Task: Help Emily and Charles come up with a plan to make sure that all that the components they have are authentic.

• Develop a plan for Emily and Charles to work with their suppliers to use Blockchain technology to assure authenticity.

• Also, help Emily and Charles develop a plan to use the information from the IIoT to determine when and how to maintain and replace equipment.

• Explain to Emily and Charles how to brainstorm using mind-mapping and role-playing with other team members.

• Develop recommendations for both supply chain integrity (using blockchain) and maintenance / replacement protocols and best practices for the company.

Readings:

Thinking about Scenarios:
 How to do them
 Define the elements
  What can happen?
  Who is impacted?
  Who can do anything?
  When?
  Where?

 Mind maps
  Coggle
https://coggle.it/

  MindMUp 
https://www.mindmup.com/

 Group activity (collaborative online and face to face)
Simulations: 
 What is the information that you need?
 What is the situation?
 What are the variables?
 What can be controlled?
 What is the flow? (mapping / workflow)
 How to get started:  software
 Dealing with complexity
 Possible outcomes: listing / prioritizing
 Quantifying possible consequences

Simulations
https://qlikcloud.com/

Future directions:
Blockchain:

What is Blockchain Technology?  A Step-by-Step Guide for Beginners
https://blockgeeks.com/guides/what-is-blockchain-technology/

Blockchain Fundamentals: https://youtu.be/OSriZ_SeTfk

“Every time a product changes hands, the transaction could be documented, creating a permanent history of a product, from manufacture to sale”

Vorabutra, Jon-Amerin, (2016) Why Blockchain is a Game-changer in Supply  Chain Management Transparency. Supplychain247.com
https://www.supplychain247.com/article/why_blockchain_is_a_game_changer_for_the_supply_chain

TAMUT  MBA in Energy Leadership: Click link to apply - more information
http://www.tamut.edu/Academics/colleges-and-departments/CBET/Graduate-Programs/MBA-Program/Energy-Leadership.html

For more information about the courses (and this full course), please contact me.

Risk Mgmt Unit 3: Predicting Risk: Approaches using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

Upon successful completion of this unit, learners will be able to identify how to use artificial intelligence and machine learning to predict levels and types of risk, both known and unknown.  Links to open source platforms, languages, and computing environments are provided.  It is not necessary to learn the computing languages or to develop new code or programs; the goal of this unit is to familiarize learners in order to work effectively in teams with data scientists, domain experts, and financial decision-makers.

Unit Presentation:

Video:   https://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cqVZht3OAh

PDF (contains links to readings, etc.) 
http://zenzebra.net/risk/risk-management-nash-pt3.pdf  

Scenario 3:  Predicting Risk: Approaches using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

Julia, Patricio, and Reyna are part of a team that is tasked with classifying old shallow-water offshore wells in the Gulf of Mexico in new ways that will help them develop a plan to boost production. 

They feel very fortunate in that around a million geological and production records have been scanned, and they cover the 150 or so wells in the field.  It’s a treasure trove of data, and they want to incorporate it with the new data in order to develop a profile of the best wells, as well as the good, mediocre, and underperforming wells.

Your Task: Help Julia, Patricio, and Reyna develop a plan to analyze the data, and then help them determine where, when, and how they can use artificial intelligence and machine learning to create profiles.

Here are a few things to consider:
 How will you select the data to use?
 How will you organize it?

What does it mean for a well to be:
  Excellent
  Good
  Mediocre
  Bad
 
What are the attributes or clusters of characteristics you’ll use?
 What approach will you use to select data?
  To clean the data?
  To analyze the data?
 What kind of AI / ML approach will you use?
 How will you use the results?

Readings:
Overview thoughts / concepts

Lists of uses of AI / Machine Learning the energy industry
 Upstream
  Classify wells using your own unique set of criteria
  Identify high-value (or potential high-value) blocks
 Midstream
  Classify infrastructure (pipelines, etc) with your own criteria
  Predict overall performance and the location of bottlenecks
 Downstream
  Refining
  Retail / distribution
 Wind energy  Identify high-value, high-return new locations
  Identify small businesses that would benefit from local energy
 Solar energy
Workflow for machine learning (in general)

● Pinpoint the problem you want to solve.
● Identify the data you’ll need to use
● Collect the data
● Clean the data
● Organize your data (put into a model - if structured, may use Open Source models such as those from Apache HaDoop)
● Find a model
● Develop algorithms (May use repositories and also cloud-based interfaces)
● Train the model
● Test with data sets
● Reality check
● Decision points
 
How do I clean data?
 What is “dirty” data? 
  Does not make sense
  Bad labels
  Incorrect formatting
  Too many “nulls”
  Part of the data in a different order or different columns
Brendon Bailey’s Guide:  Use Excel or Python to Clean Data?

Use Excel if: You have fewer than 1 million records
You need to do the job quick and easy
There is a logical pattern to cleaning the data and it’s easy enough to clean using Excel functions
The logical pattern to cleaning the data is hard to define, and you need to clean the data manually
When you might use Python or another scripting language:

Use Python if: You need to document your process
You plan on doing the job on a repeat basis
There is a logical pattern to cleaning the data, but it is hard to implement with Excel functions

Brendon Bailey. “Data Cleaning 101” TowardDataScience.com
 https://towardsdatascience.com/data-cleaning-101-948d22a92e4
 
Where do you keep the data?
 cloud solutions (Google, Amazon Web Services (AWS))

Software for risk analytics (free / open source):

Spotfire (http://www.spotfire.com)
Qlik.com (free Spotfire alternative, Qlik.com)
Jupyter Notebook https://jupyter.org/
 iPython
 R
 C++
 Julia

A Gallery of interesting Jupyter Notebooks (ready to share)
https://github.com/jupyter/jupyter/wiki/A-gallery-of-interesting-Jupyter-Notebooks

How do we predict where and when high-risk situations may take place?
 Analyze data
 Probabilistic analysis (Spotfire, etc.)
 Using geospatial elements
What is the ideal combination of variable or factors to tell us when / where / how conditions are ideal for a) optimization; b) an accident or problem ?
 Use multivariate analysis
 Bring together all risk factors: geological, logistical, political, economic, legal, environmental, etc.
 Weight them by importance (assign a percentage)

https://www.kinetica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/OilGas_jt1.0mn.pdf https://medium.com/syncedreview/how-ai-can-help-the-oil-industry-b853dda86be6

Learn and Use Machine Learning

Tensorflow: https://www.tensorflow.org/tutorials/keras/

Tensorflow Machine Learning Cookbook: https://github.com/nfmcclure/tensorflow_cookbook

AI and Probabilistic Models

Part I
https://medium.com/tensorflow/industrial-ai-bhges-physics-based-probabilistic-deep-learning-using-tensorflow-probability-5f215c791863

Part II
https://medium.com/tensorflow/predicting-known-unknowns-with-tensorflow-probability-industrial-ai-part-2-2fbd3522ebda

Bougher, Benjamin Bryan. (2016)  Machine Learning Applications to Geophysical Data Analysis. Open Collections. University of British Columbia.
https://open.library.ubc.ca/cIRcle/collections/ubctheses/24/items/1.0308786

Bougher, Ben B. (2016) Using the scattering transform to predict stratigraphic units from well logs. Seismic Laboratory for Imaging and Modeling (SLIM), The University of British Columbia, Vancouver

https://www.slim.eos.ubc.ca/Publications/Public/Journals/CSEGRecorder/2016/bougher2015CSEGust/bougher2015CSEGust.html

Data:  Trenton Black River gamma ray logs

Methodology:  supervised learning ("uses labelled datasets to train a classifier to make predictions about future data" (Bougher, 2016))

Methodology - what's the algorithm?  Bougher uses a scattering transform - and then it fieeds a K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) classifier).

How can I do this?

Using convolutional neural networks to solve a mineral prospectivity mapping problem
Framing the exploration task as a supervised learning problem, the geological, geochemical and geophysical information can be used as training data, and known mineral occurrences can be used as training labels. The goal is to parameterize the complex relationships between the data and the labels such that mineral potential can be estimated in under-explored regions using available geoscience data.

Granek, Justin. (2016). Application of Machine Learning Algorithms to Mineral Prospectivity Mapping. Open Collections. University of British Columbia.
https://open.library.ubc.ca/cIRcle/collections/ubctheses/24/items/1.0340340


TAMUT  MBA in Energy Leadership: Click link to apply - more information

For more information about the courses (and this full course), please contact me. 

Risk Mgmt Unit 2: Cascading Risks: Workflows for Risks

Learn to identify and evaluate cascading risks and causal chains is the goal of this unit, with easy-to-use tools for creating flow charts and maps for analysis and decision-making.
• Determine the data you need to understand systemic risks
• Identify the relationships that lead to cascading risks
• Discuss ways do develop workflows of flows of risks
• Identify the locations most likely to trigger cascading failures
• Identify the types of risks associated with the failures
• Describe methods of analyzing cascading risks using several analytical techniques
• Explain how a Bayesian analysis can be effective for identifying relationships

Unit Presentation:
Video:  https://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cqVZhl3Ozi  

PDF (contains links to readings, etc.) http://zenzebra.net/risk/risk-management-nash-pt2.pdf  

Scenario 2:  Cascading Risks:  Workflows for Risks
Joseph works for Wolf Midstream, which recently diversified into solar and wind energy to generate electricity for the grid in northeastern Texas and southwest Arkansas. 

Things have been going well.  However, the weather forecast says there is a high likelihood of a tornado outbreak near their solar panel farm and also near the Wolf wind farm. Wolf Midstream is connected with Lone Wolf Electric, which owns transmission lines into the small towns and rural homes.

The leadership of Wolf wants a report that provides 3 different scenarios for different levels of storms.  They want to know what all the potential impacts will be, and how they will affect each other.

Your Task: Help Joseph develop a map that shows how damage in one place will affect other places, resulting in causal chains, and cascading failures.

What will Joseph need?
 Which data does she need to collect?
 What kind of maps should she build?
 Use a diagram to show with arrows the cascading failures.
 Then, mark on a map where the problems will occur (after you’ve completed the diagrams).
 
You may wish to create 4 different maps:
 Stage 1: Initial impact
 Stage 2:  Secondary impact
 Stage 3:  What happens after Stage 2 failures occur
 Stage 4:  Final level of outcomes (long-term consequences).

Readings:
“Risk relationships and cascading relationships in critical infrastructures”
https://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2015/en/bgdocs/McGee%20et%20al.,%202014.pdf

Destruction of infrastructure => disruption of supply chain => disruptions in global / local manufacturing (or mining, etc.)

Bottlenecks (constraints)
Strategic Supply Chain Mapping Approaches
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/6cd0/25fd30d1441935eb8bd6f1511cdc22cc0294.pdf

Mapping Supply Chain Constraints in LPG
Analysis of Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) Shortage in Ghana: Case of the Ashanti Region
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267245130_Analysis_of_Liquefied_Petroleum_Gas_LPG_Shortage_in_Ghana_A_Case_of_the_Ashanti_Region

Illustration: 
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Structure-and-mapping-of-LPG-supply-chain_fig3_267245130
Interventions
Bayesian networks: https://www.kdnuggets.com/software/bayesian.html
Bayesian Network Tools in Java: http://bnj.sourceforge.net/

Getting started: https://www.loginworks.com/blogs/how-to-perform-a-risk-assessment-with-data-analytics/

Texas AM Texarkana TAMUT MBA in Energy Leadership: Click link to apply - more information

For more information about the courses (and this full course), please contact me. 

Risk Mgmt Unit 1: Identifying and Quantifying Risks in the Energy Industry Using Heat Maps

Upon successful completion of this unit, learners will be able to identify and define risks in the energy industry (petroleum, natural gas, alternative), and construct risk heat maps for analysis, strategic planning and decision-making.
 
Unit Presentation: 

Pdf:  (contains links to readings):  http://zenzebra.net/risk/risk-management-nash-pt1.pdf

https://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cqVZh33OzE

Video: https://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cqVZh33OzE

Activity:
Scenario 1:  The Real Risks:  Identifying and Quantifying Using Heat Maps

Mark, Tamara, and Talib have put together a small company, Invictus Energy, with the goal of buying two or three small mature fields that also has a pipeline and gas gathering system. 

 Their goal is to revitalize the fields, renegotiate contracts, and then sell the fields and the gas gathering system and pipelines. They have obtained private equity financing, but are a bit alarmed at how much personal "skin in the game" they have to put up.

They are required to put in their own savings and assets, which makes them very nervous. But, they believe they can boost the production and recoverable reserves by 50%.  They are worried because the pumps are old, and the pipeline and gas gathering systems have not had any corrosion control or maintenance in many years.

Your Task:  Help Mark, Tamara, and Talib identify and rank the risks. Then, help them create a heat map so they can make sound financial decisions.
 --What are the kinds of risks that Invictus Energy will face?
 --What is the probability and potential impact of each?
 --What does a risk heat map look like for Invictus?
 --What are 3 or 4 decisions that the heat map can help with?
 
Readings:

Unit Presentation: http://zenzebra.net/risk/risk-management-nash-pt1.pdf

Heat Maps – where how to build them
 https://riskmanagementguru.com/create-risk-heatmap-excel-part-1.html/ 
https://riskmanagementguru.com/create-risk-heatmap-excel-part-2.html/ 

Example: Upstream oil and gas exploration and development
 Geological Risk (model, quality of information, imaging)
 Legal risk (title, etc.)
 Analytics risk (model, organization of information)
 Data Acquisition Risk
 Safety risk
 Drilling Risk (out of zone)
 Hydraulic fracturing risk
 Completion Risk 

Other examples:  Solar and wind energy generation and distribution.

Texas A&M Texarkana MBA in Energy Leadership: Click link to apply - more information

For more information about the courses (and this full course), please contact me.