Showing posts with label artificial intelligence. Show all posts
Showing posts with label artificial intelligence. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Transforming Stress, Unexpected Change and Uncertainty into New Opportunities: Interview with Elaine Bontempi, Ph.D.

The ever-increasing pace of change, combined with new displacing and disruptive technologies that involve digitalization, robotics, widescale automation and more, is requiring everyone to rethink how they live their lives and how they earn a living. In all cases, individuals may feel under pressure, out of control, and fearful.

Welcome to an interview with Dr. Elaine Bontempi, who talks to us today about transforming a stressful situation into one that builds confidence and open doors.  She talks about the psychological and physical costs of doing nothing, and the benefits of developing a plan and a new philosophy. 

1.  What is your name and your background?

Elaine Bontempi, Ph.D.
My name is Elaine Bontempi and I have the following background. My website is here: https://www.drbontempi-coaching.com/

Ph.D.: Educational Psychology
Focus: The role of culture in motivation & learning

M.Ed.: Educational Psychology
Focus: The role of culture in motivation & learning

M.A.: Human Relations
Focus: Multicultural Counseling

B.A.: Health Psychology
Minor in Sociology (Contemporary Social Issues)

•    Over 15 years of experience teaching graduate & undergraduate courses in Psychology, Human Motivation in Learning, Human Motivation in Work & Leadership, Human Learning, Cultural Diversity, Leadership, Contemporary Social Problems, Social Psychology, & Ethics

•    Over 10 years of experience designing, implementing & evaluating educational outreach and training programs for non-profits, Dept. of Education, government institutions and businesses

•    Academic & Life Coaching

2.  What are your areas of expertise, and how did you get interested in them?

My areas of expertise are in Psychology, but in particular, Motivation, Health, & Well-Being.

Specifically:
•    Motivation & psychological well being
•    The role of goals and psychological well-being (not all goals are created equally, and although society really pushes some goals, the pursuit and attainment of certain types of goals actually undermines well-being).
•    Motivation in the workplace
•    At risk teens
•    Eating disorders
•    Overcoming anxiety without medication
•    Stress management
•    Coping with aging and/or terminally ill parents
•    Grief & loss
•    Spirituality and well being

How did I become interested in these topics? I would say that I have always been interested in what makes people tick, so to speak, as well as health, and general well-being. Growing up as an athlete, you learn the importance of goal setting, self-regulation, and motivation. However, these are limited tools because as we grow older, we encounter challenges and life transitions, and many of these are quite uncomfortable as we are stretched outside of our comfort zones. Of course many of these transitions are inevitable and are part of the maturation process. However, even anticipated mile markers can act as barriers to our growth and self-actualization if we lack a healthy mindset, coping skills, and self-regulatory strategies

3.  How do people manage change today? What are some of the negative ways that people cope with change? What are better ways?



Photo by Humphrey Muleba from Pexels

The ways in which people handle stress vary considerably from one person to the next. Each person has a unique set of experiences, coping mechanisms, abilities, and values that all contribute to how one handles stress. In addition to individual differences there are some general group differences that can be seen as well, as a result of cultural norms and gender socialization. 

Some of the negative ways that people cope with change and stress include smoking, drug use/abuse, alcohol use/abuse, compulsive spending, over or under eating, eating unhealthy "comfort" and junk foods, excessive use of sugar and caffeine, sleeping too much or too little, sexual promiscuity, overworking, lashing out at others, and violence.

However, there are definitely healthier ways of handling stress. The first step is identifying the sources of stress in your life, as well as your attributional style. Do you have a tendency to place the blame for your stress on others, do you feel that you have no control over your circumstances, or do you recognize that although you may not be able to control events, you can control your reactions?

There are different approaches to changing the stressful situation--you can either avoid the stressor, or sometimes you can alter the stressor. For example, you can often times avoid a stressor by simply learning how to say "no." Often times, we feel compelled to say "yes" to everything in order to please others, or to avoid looking incompetent or lazy. It is imperative that you learn to recognize your limits and say no to things that will result in too much stress.

If you are unable to avoid a stressor, you may choose to alter the situation. An example of altering the situation might include expressing your feeling in a different manner. For example, rather than bottling up emotions and letting them fester and brew, find a friend or counselor that you can talk to. Or, it may mean changing how you express your emotions, or even regulating your time so that you are less likely to feel stressed out from having too much responsibility and not enough time to accomplish the things you have committed to.

You can also learn to adapt by using healthy stress management techniques, and/or accept the stressor.  Adapting to the situation often means learning how to use emotional regulation strategies for healthier coping, which often times involves changing your interpretation of the event that you perceive as being stressful. Is the stressor really that important or are you putting too much emphasis on something that really, in the long run, doesn't mean much? The old saying, "learn how to pick your battles" may apply here.

 Sometimes you simply have to accept things that you cannot change but find work arounds. Focus on the things you CAN change rather than getting upset about things you cannot control. For example, if you are responsible for the caregiving of a sick child or aging parent, you probably won't be able to change or avoid the stressor. However, you can change your reaction. You will need to accept that your child or parent is ill and needs help, and re-arrange your schedule in order to meet these demands. If you are still responsible for other obligations then it may be necessary to adapt to the stressor by seeking outside help to assist in caregiving, recognize that you as a caregiver, also need to maintain a healthy lifestyle, learn to manage time more efficiently, and never overlook the importance of self-care.

Some of the healthier ways in which people handle stress include:
•    social support networks including family and friends
•    support groups, spirituality and prayer/meditation
•    learning the art of forgiveness
•    spending time in nature
•    getting regular exercise (cardiovascular exercise in particular)
•    eating properly and getting plenty of sleep
•    applying biofeedback
•    practicing yoga
•    spending time with pets
•    writing in your journal
•    working outside in the garden
•    painting/sculpting/drawing
•    dancing
•    playing a musical instrument
•    scheduling time for self-care such as massage/Reiki/ acupuncture
•    practicing mindfulness
•    learning time management
•    accepting there are things you cannot control
•    embracing a positive attitude
•    avoiding too much caffeine
•    avoiding abuse of alcohol, drugs or nicotine
•    seeking counseling, etc.

Certain counseling techniques such as cognitive evaluative therapy might be helpful in thought stopping behaviors and replacing negative thinking with positive thoughts. Behavioral therapy can also helpful in reinforcing positive behaviors and extinguishing negative ones. Exercise can play a very important role in improving anxiety and depression. Especially something as simple as walking daily. Exercise increases the production and release of serotonin and dopamine, both neurotransmitters play an important role in maintaining a healthy and positive mood.

3.  What are some of the major stressors in our world today and how do they change over one's lifespan?


Photo by Oladimeji Ajegbile from Pexels

We are facing many stressors in the world today. It seems like our world is shifting so rapidly that people are struggling to keep up with the transitions, and as a result sometimes it seems that the world has gone mad. Climate changes that are causing major shifts in weather patterns, mass immigration and migration, racism, economic uncertainty resulting in layoffs, downsizing, closures and job loss, global migration, political polarization, mass shootings, etc. are just a few of the global stressors.  We are also seeing alarming trends concerning the use of social media and depression/anxiety/suicide. A sociological phenomenon known as “upward social comparison” is wreaking havoc on peoples’ self-worth and self-esteem, as they are comparing themselves to the lives of others represented through reality television and social media. Even though these profiles are considerably altered through selective use of highly edited photos, and the “highlight” reels of one’s life, people are often left feeling deflated and dissatisfied with their own lives when comparing them to the self-marketed profiles of others in Facebook and other social media platforms.

Other stressors are small, daily things such as dealing with traffic and long commutes, office politics, paying bills, screaming children, juggling obligations between work, family, and/or school, etc. These types of stressors don't tend to score big on the "life stressors" chart, but major transitions in life, even if they are perceived as positive, can take a larger toll and undermine well-being.

Major transitions in life include events such as graduation, marriage, birth of a child, changes in career (new job or loss of job), relocation, divorce, empty nest, changes in health, loss of a loved one, natural disasters, war, unhealthy relationships, aging parents, etc. Studies have repeatedly shown that as people grow older, their health declines more rapidly if they do not have a social support system. This is a growing problem as people are living longer, but often more isolated lives. Adult children are often scattered across the globe as job opportunities take them away from the same town as their parents. This is especially common in individualistic cultures such as the United States and western European cultures, that place value on independence and competition rather than on community and harmonious interdependence.  Nursing homes and assisted living centers in the US are filled with aging, forgotten parents.

4.  What are some of the stresses related to taking care with aging parents or relatives?

Photo by Matthias Zomer from Pexels

 Taking care of aging parents or relatives can be a particularly stressful job, as it can leaves one feeling physically and emotionally drained. As parents get older, their physical limitations decrease, thus their need for support increases. Their needs are multi-pronged and may include financial costs associated with healthcare and nutrition, mobility needs (ie, a parent may go from using a cane to a walker, to a wheelchair, and ultimately being bedridden), etc. As their needs increase, the demands placed on the caregiver also rise. Seeing a parent who was once vital and independent regress to a state of dependence can be difficult to watch, and it tends to cause a shifting in the dynamics of the relationship as roles are reversed.

This can seriously tax the physical and emotional reserves of anyone caring for an elderly parent, but when personality changes associated with aging and dementia are also present, it can especially stressful. It may also be particularly stressful on the caregiver if they are trying to juggle their own responsibilities of work, family/relationships, health, etc. In most cases it leaves the person responsible for caregiving feeling emotionally and physically drained, thus one of the most important things for any caregiver to remember is the importance of self-care. If the caregiver overlooks this it can quickly erode both the physical and emotional health of the caregiver. Thus, relying on some of the above mentioned strategies for stress management are imperative. Getting proper nutrition, plenty of sleep and exercise, spending time in prayer/meditation, having a strong support system of one’s own, and learning how to say “no” to increasing demands by sharing the responsibility with other family members or hiring help are very important.

5.  What are support networks?  What happens when people lose their support networks?


PHOTO CREDITS Photo by Tristan Le from Pexels

Support networks refer to the psychological and physical support provided by a social network. Social networks can include close friends and family members, tribal members, social activity/group such as a book club, community support groups, or even a religious community. Social support networks can provide a variety of resources ranging from emotional support, financial assistance, prayer, or help with daily tasks. Those who have high quality or quantity social networks tend to show decreased depression, anxiety, loneliness, drug/alcohol use, and a lower risk of mortality in comparison to those who have low quantity or quality of relationships.

Poor social support has been also linked to cardiovascular disease, lowered immune system, and altered brain function. Although there are individual and group differences, women often have closer support networks due to the differences in how men and women are socialized. While gender roles are changing, women are still more likely to be socialized as nurturers and caregivers, and playing support roles rather than placing emphasis on competition and independence. As a result, women’s health tends to benefit as they grow older as they are much more likely to have a social network for support. Men tend to rely on spouses and children, but if neither are around as they grow older, they are much more vulnerable to the ill effects of having a limited support network.


Sunday, January 27, 2019

Risk Mgmt Unit 3: Predicting Risk: Approaches using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

Upon successful completion of this unit, learners will be able to identify how to use artificial intelligence and machine learning to predict levels and types of risk, both known and unknown.  Links to open source platforms, languages, and computing environments are provided.  It is not necessary to learn the computing languages or to develop new code or programs; the goal of this unit is to familiarize learners in order to work effectively in teams with data scientists, domain experts, and financial decision-makers.

Unit Presentation:

Video:   https://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cqVZht3OAh



PDF (contains links to readings, etc.) 
http://zenzebra.net/risk/risk-management-nash-pt3.pdf  


Scenario 3:  Predicting Risk: Approaches using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

Julia, Patricio, and Reyna are part of a team that is tasked with classifying old shallow-water offshore wells in the Gulf of Mexico in new ways that will help them develop a plan to boost production. 


They feel very fortunate in that around a million geological and production records have been scanned, and they cover the 150 or so wells in the field.  It’s a treasure trove of data, and they want to incorporate it with the new data in order to develop a profile of the best wells, as well as the good, mediocre, and underperforming wells.

Your Task: Help Julia, Patricio, and Reyna develop a plan to analyze the data, and then help them determine where, when, and how they can use artificial intelligence and machine learning to create profiles.

Here are a few things to consider:
 How will you select the data to use?
 How will you organize it?


What does it mean for a well to be:
  Excellent
  Good
  Mediocre
  Bad
 

What are the attributes or clusters of characteristics you’ll use?
 What approach will you use to select data?
  To clean the data?
  To analyze the data?
 What kind of AI / ML approach will you use?
 How will you use the results?


Readings:

Overview thoughts / concepts

Lists of uses of AI / Machine Learning the energy industry
 Upstream
  Classify wells using your own unique set of criteria
  Identify high-value (or potential high-value) blocks
 Midstream
  Classify infrastructure (pipelines, etc) with your own criteria
  Predict overall performance and the location of bottlenecks
 Downstream
  Refining
  Retail / distribution
 Wind energy  Identify high-value, high-return new locations
  Identify small businesses that would benefit from local energy
 Solar energy
Workflow for machine learning (in general)


● Pinpoint the problem you want to solve.
● Identify the data you’ll need to use
● Collect the data
● Clean the data
● Organize your data (put into a model - if structured, may use Open Source models such as those from Apache HaDoop)
● Find a model
● Develop algorithms (May use repositories and also cloud-based interfaces)
● Train the model
● Test with data sets
● Reality check
● Decision points
 

How do I clean data?
 What is “dirty” data? 
  Does not make sense
  Bad labels
  Incorrect formatting
  Too many “nulls”
  Part of the data in a different order or different columns

Brendon Bailey’s Guide:  Use Excel or Python to Clean Data?

Use Excel if: You have fewer than 1 million records
You need to do the job quick and easy
There is a logical pattern to cleaning the data and it’s easy enough to clean using Excel functions
The logical pattern to cleaning the data is hard to define, and you need to clean the data manually

When you might use Python or another scripting language:

Use Python if: You need to document your process
You plan on doing the job on a repeat basis
There is a logical pattern to cleaning the data, but it is hard to implement with Excel functions


Brendon Bailey. “Data Cleaning 101” TowardDataScience.com
 https://towardsdatascience.com/data-cleaning-101-948d22a92e4

 
Where do you keep the data?
 cloud solutions (Google, Amazon Web Services (AWS))

Software for risk analytics (free / open source):


Spotfire (http://www.spotfire.com)
Qlik.com (free Spotfire alternative, Qlik.com)
Jupyter Notebook https://jupyter.org/
 iPython
 R
 C++
 Julia


A Gallery of interesting Jupyter Notebooks (ready to share)
https://github.com/jupyter/jupyter/wiki/A-gallery-of-interesting-Jupyter-Notebooks


How do we predict where and when high-risk situations may take place?
 Analyze data
 Probabilistic analysis (Spotfire, etc.)
 Using geospatial elements

What is the ideal combination of variable or factors to tell us when / where / how conditions are ideal for a) optimization; b) an accident or problem ?
 Use multivariate analysis
 Bring together all risk factors: geological, logistical, political, economic, legal, environmental, etc.
 Weight them by importance (assign a percentage)


https://www.kinetica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/OilGas_jt1.0mn.pdf https://medium.com/syncedreview/how-ai-can-help-the-oil-industry-b853dda86be6

Learn and Use Machine Learning

Tensorflow: https://www.tensorflow.org/tutorials/keras/


Tensorflow Machine Learning Cookbook: https://github.com/nfmcclure/tensorflow_cookbook

AI and Probabilistic Models

Part I
https://medium.com/tensorflow/industrial-ai-bhges-physics-based-probabilistic-deep-learning-using-tensorflow-probability-5f215c791863


Part II
https://medium.com/tensorflow/predicting-known-unknowns-with-tensorflow-probability-industrial-ai-part-2-2fbd3522ebda


Bougher, Benjamin Bryan. (2016)  Machine Learning Applications to Geophysical Data Analysis. Open Collections. University of British Columbia.
https://open.library.ubc.ca/cIRcle/collections/ubctheses/24/items/1.0308786


Bougher, Ben B. (2016) Using the scattering transform to predict stratigraphic units from well logs. Seismic Laboratory for Imaging and Modeling (SLIM), The University of British Columbia, Vancouver

https://www.slim.eos.ubc.ca/Publications/Public/Journals/CSEGRecorder/2016/bougher2015CSEGust/bougher2015CSEGust.html

Data:  Trenton Black River gamma ray logs

Methodology:  supervised learning ("uses labelled datasets to train a classifier to make predictions about future data" (Bougher, 2016))

Methodology - what's the algorithm?  Bougher uses a scattering transform - and then it fieeds a K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) classifier).

How can I do this?

Using convolutional neural networks to solve a mineral prospectivity mapping problem
Framing the exploration task as a supervised learning problem, the geological, geochemical and geophysical information can be used as training data, and known mineral occurrences can be used as training labels. The goal is to parameterize the complex relationships between the data and the labels such that mineral potential can be estimated in under-explored regions using available geoscience data.

Granek, Justin. (2016). Application of Machine Learning Algorithms to Mineral Prospectivity Mapping. Open Collections. University of British Columbia.
https://open.library.ubc.ca/cIRcle/collections/ubctheses/24/items/1.0340340



TAMUT  MBA in Energy Leadership: Click link to apply - more information

For more information about the courses (and this full course), please contact me. 



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