Free Video-Based Mini-Course: Monetary Pivot Points, the Dollar, and Oil Prices with William DeMis

Is the U.S. headed for another major monetary shift that could send oil prices soaring? In this powerful and popular presentation, originally delivered to a standing-room-only crowd at IMAGE, William DeMis of Rochelle Court LLC explains the critical link between U.S. monetary policy, the value of the dollar, and the price of oil.

Discover the concept of "monetary pivot points"—critical macroeconomic events where the U.S. dollar's value changes profoundly, triggering major reactions in the oil market.

Video for the Course
https://youtu.be/2zJtTanmC_Q?si=8M73vaWy1w3bre7w

Course Summary

 This course examines the critical relationship between U.S. monetary policy, the value of the dollar, and global oil prices. Drawing on historical analysis, we will explore significant "monetary pivot points" that have profoundly altered the value of the U.S. dollar and, consequently, the price of oil, which is priced and traded globally in U.S. dollars. Key historical events covered include the end of the Bretton Woods Accord in 1971 and the Plaza Accord of 1985. The course will analyze how these events led to major shifts in the dollar's value and triggered corresponding reactions from OPEC to maintain the purchasing power of oil.

We will also investigate the current economic landscape, characterized by unsustainable national debt, significant federal deficits, and the Federal Reserve and Treasury being "boxed into a corner". The course will discuss contemporary signals of a new monetary pivot, such as central banks divesting from U.S. Treasuries in favor of gold, and explore potential future scenarios involving inflation, dollar devaluation, and the rise of stablecoins. By the end of the course, you will understand the historical precedents and current macroeconomic forces that are expected to shape the future of oil prices.

Learning Objectives

Lower-Level Objectives (Remembering & Understanding)

1. Define key monetary terms and events, including monetary pivot points, the Bretton Woods Accord, the Plaza Accord, and the petrodollar agreement.

2. Describe the historical relationship between the price of gold and the price of oil, specifically the "gold-oil ratio".

3. Identify the primary causes for the collapse of the Bretton Woods Accord in 1971.

4. Explain the current fiscal challenges facing the U.S., including the national debt, deficits, and the problem of refinancing maturing debt.

Higher-Level Objectives (Analyzing & Evaluating)

5. Analyze how a significant change in the value of the U.S. dollar impacts oil prices differently depending on whether the global oil supply is tight or loose.

6. Evaluate the argument that the U.S. is currently in a "big pivot" by synthesizing evidence related to national debt, central bank behavior, and historical parallels.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Assessment Questions

Multiple Choice Questions (for Lower-Level Objectives 1-4)

Objective 1: Define key monetary terms and events.

1. What is a "monetary pivot point" as described in the presentation? a. A time when the stock market reaches an all-time high. b. A key macroeconomic event where the value of the U.S. dollar changes profoundly. c. An agreement by OPEC to cut oil production. d. A moment when the U.S. national debt exceeds GDP.

2. Under the Bretton Woods Accord, what was the U.S. dollar fixed to? a. The British Pound. b. A basket of foreign currencies. c. Oil. d. Gold.

3. What was the purpose of the 1973 petrodollar agreement? a. To fix the price of oil to the price of gold. b. To require OPEC countries to price their oil in U.S. dollars, creating demand for the currency. c. To create a new currency specifically for oil trading. d. To allow European nations to pay for oil with their own currencies.

4. The Plaza Accord of 1985 was an agreement to: a. Increase the value of the U.S. dollar to fight inflation. b. Return to a gold standard for international currencies. c. Devalue the U.S. dollar to help U.S. exports. d. Establish a new global reserve currency.

5. The phrase "America's exorbitant privilege," as used by France, referred to the ability of the U.S. to: a. Control global oil supplies. b. Pay for international goods simply by printing money, while other countries had to produce value. c. Veto any decision made by the United Nations. d. Maintain the largest military in the world.

Objective 2: Describe the historical relationship between the price of gold and the price of oil.

6. According to the presentation, on average during the OPEC era, one ounce of gold could buy approximately how many barrels of oil? a. 5 barrels. b. 12 barrels. c. 25 barrels. d. 50 barrels.

7. When the price of gold rises significantly relative to oil on the specialized chart shown, what event does this historically signal? a. An impending oil price collapse. b. A period of economic recession. c. An oil boom. d. A strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

8. In the early 1970s, what was the primary motivation for OPEC to raise oil prices four-fold? a. To retaliate against the U.S. for its foreign policy. b. To maintain the purchasing power of oil in the face of a devalued dollar and rising gold prices. c. To fund industrial development projects. d. To reduce global oil consumption for environmental reasons.

9. The presenter states that gold is the "metal with a memory" because it: a. Is difficult to mine and has a long history. b. Is used in computer memory chips. c. Records the cumulative effects of inflation over time. d. Remembers its previous highest price.

10. In the early 1970s, the price of oil was observed to be _______ the price of gold. a. Leading. b. Following. c. Uncorrelated with. d. Inversely related to.

Objective 3: Identify the primary causes for the collapse of the Bretton Woods Accord.

11. According to the presentation, what two major government spending initiatives contributed to the end of the Bretton Woods Accord? a. The Marshall Plan and the Korean War. b. The Vietnam War and Johnson's Great Society. c. The Space Race and the Interstate Highway System. d. The New Deal and World War II.

12. What critical problem with the funding of these 1960s initiatives was highlighted? a. The programs were too unpopular to secure funding. b. The government did not raise taxes to pay for them, and instead just printed money. c. Most of the money was lost to corruption. d. The spending was blocked by the Supreme Court.

13. What was the consequence of President Johnson removing the gold cover requirement for the U.S. dollar? a. It allowed the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to zero. b. It strengthened the dollar's value internationally. c. It became a true fiat currency, removing the regulatory limit on money printing. d. It caused the stock market to crash.

14. Why did European central banks begin redeeming their U.S. dollars for gold at the "gold window"? a. They needed gold to fund their own social programs. b. They lost faith in the stability of their own currencies. c. They could get gold for $35/ounce from the U.S. and sell it for a higher price on the open market in Europe. d. The U.S. was forcing them to trade in their dollars.

15. What was President Nixon's final action that officially ended the Bretton Woods system in 1971? a. He declared the dollar would no longer be the world's reserve currency. b. He raised taxes significantly to pay off the national debt. c. He closed the gold window to stop foreign central banks from redeeming dollars for U.S. gold. d. He negotiated the petrodollar agreement with OPEC.

Objective 4: Explain the current fiscal challenges facing the U.S.

16. What is the major problem with the U.S. national debt that did not exist in the 1960s? a. The debt is mostly owned by foreign nations. b. The debt has exploded and is considered unsustainable. c. There is no political will to address it. d. The interest rate on the debt is fixed and cannot be changed.

17. The interest payments on the national debt now exceed the spending on which of these major federal budget items? a. Education. b. The military or Medicare (taken individually). c. Social Security. d. The military and Medicare combined.

18. What does it mean that the national debt is "always refinanced and rolled over"? a. The government pays off the debt in full every year with tax revenue. b. The debt is forgiven by international lenders every 10 years. c. When old bonds mature, the government issues new bonds to pay for them. d. The debt is converted into corporate stocks.

19. According to the presenter, what happens if the interest rate on all U.S. debt resets to 4.5%? a. The stock market will double in value. b. The U.S. will default on its debt immediately. c. The interest payments alone will consume all federal tax revenue. d. Foreign countries will rush to buy more U.S. bonds.

20. A recent trend among foreign central banks that signals a current monetary pivot is: a. Buying massive amounts of U.S. stocks. b. Selling their own currencies to buy more U.S. dollars. c. Dumping U.S. treasuries and swapping dollars for gold. d. Lobbying the U.S. government to raise interest rates.

Short Essay Questions or Discussion Items 

(or Higher-Level Objectives 4 - 6)

1. Analysis: The Bretton Woods Accord and the Plaza Accord are presented as two key "monetary pivot points" that profoundly changed the value of the U.S. dollar. Compare and contrast the reasons for the dollar's devaluation in each of these pivots and explain the differing impacts these devaluations had on the price of oil.

2. Evaluation: The speaker argues that the current U.S. national debt is unsustainable and that the Federal Reserve and Treasury are "boxed into a corner," limiting their ability to fight inflation or attract bond investors. Based on the evidence presented in the sources, critique this argument. Do you find the speaker's reasoning about the constraints on monetary and fiscal policy to be convincing? Justify your answer.

3. Analysis: Central banks are reportedly buying gold at a rate not seen since the 1960s, a trend the speaker links to the pivot away from the U.S. dollar. Analyze the relationship between the real yield on U.S. Treasury bonds and the price of gold, and explain why the current decoupling of this relationship is significant for the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency.

4. Evaluation: The speaker concludes that despite the current fiscal challenges and a period of "tumult," the U.S. will ultimately get through this pivot due to its history of innovation and entrepreneurship. Evaluate the strength of this optimistic conclusion by weighing it against the severity of the problems outlined, such as the national debt consuming all federal revenue.

5. Analysis: The presentation posits that after the end of Bretton Woods, OPEC raised oil prices primarily to maintain its purchasing power against a devalued dollar, rather than for geopolitical reasons. Analyze how the concept of the "real global price of oil" supports this monetary-based explanation for the oil price shocks of the 1970s

IBM Predictions for the Future Spell Web 2.0 Business Opportunities Now

IBM has released their annual “Next Five In Five,” a set of predictions released at the end of each year, to predict where technology will take us in five years http://www.ibm.com/ibm/ideasfromibm/us/five_in_five/12312007/index.shtml

The December 2007 predictions, however, seem to have already come true, or, at least, be on the verge of coming true. Thus, as predictions, they are not as engaging as some of the futurist visions that discuss really radical new technologies and techniques. However, as indicators of where real business opportunities exist now and in the immediate future, IBM's predictions are pure old.

The “Five in Five” is not quite the same, but is similar to another set of predictions issued by IBM. "Five Innovations that Could Change Your Life Over the Next Five Years," http://www.ibm.com/ibm/ideasfromibm/us/five_in_five/010807/index.shtml which came from an IBM-sponsored distributed event, and virtual think tank.

Below are IBM's five predictions. I've added brief commentary as well as a list of possible opportunities that can be developed or expanded now.

1. Green Technologies for Everyday Life
"Smart technologies" will proliferate. According to IBM, the current trend to put timers and sensors on lights and electrical equipment will expand to the point that almost everything will have energy-saving elements, and many will utilize nanotechnology in the sensors and other design.

Business Opportunities Now:
---Sensors to control energy consumption
---Devices that have them (sellers and manufacturers)

2. Driving Patterns and Traffic Management

Yahoo Go! and Google Maps already provide information for handhelds. Numerous mashups can be downloaded that integrate traffic information with maps (such as Google maps). The opportunities exist to provide better coverage. They can also be helpful in reviewing real estate or driving conditions at a distance from one's handheld.

Business Opportunities Now:
---Info systems (web app that integrate with live information)
---Monitor that gather the information and feed them to a central database -- cell phones with GPS? OnStar nav systems?
---Companies that provide the services to install devices and monitoring systems / software

3. You Are What You Eat: Crop / Food tracking and reporting

According to IBM, all our food will be traceable, and we'll be able to find just where it was grown, processed, and warehoused. Honestly, there is nothing new in this -- all food has such information already. If it did not, how would we have been able to determine where the tainted spinach came from in the outbreak that occurred in 2006? However, according to IBM, the tracking information will extend to the types of soil, the nature of the farm environment, and the dates of transit.


Business Opportunities Now:
---Far beyond the barcode information // especially date
---Origin and provenance (soil, country, etc)
---Provenance and transport (processing and packaging)
---Agricultural industry can sell information to users
---Packaging manufacturers would design packaging to facilitate the new need
---Problem -- too much information for competitors?

4. Cell Phones Do Everything

According to the prediction, cell phones will be personal assistants that will do everything from find maps, deliver email, allow you to see ratings for a restaurant, share videos, and post directly to social networking sites.

As we all know, that prediction has come true. In fact, just yesterday, I used my Blackberry Curve (with service provided by T-Mobile) to find the street address of Kyoto's, a restaurant in Reno, Nevada, where I was to meet for lunch. I used Yahoo Go! to enter the name of the restaurant and the town. I obtained the street address, found a map, and also even found some ratings and customer comments regarding their sushi. I was able to avoid a traffic accident on one of the streets on the way to the restaurant, thanks to Based on that information, I found the restaurant, and then ordered the sushi sampler. The ahi sashimi looked good, so I will probably try that next time. I could have filmed a movie of it and posted it directly to my YouTube account or as a video comment on Yahoo Go!, but decided against it. I was afraid I would dribble soy sauce on my white blouse.

Business Opportunities Now:
---Marketing portals that are cell-phone / smartphone friendly
---Packages to help businesses meet the needs of their cell phone-based customers
---Packages to help vendors, businesses, and consumers input information in many fields (rating restaurants, providing maps, etc.)
---Packages to help consumers decode all the information and use it
---Effective ads etc for cell phone display

5. Doctors will use super-scans to analyze patients.

Needless to say, this is also a prediction that has already come true. It is useful to see, though, that IBM expects the trend to continue and the information to become more portable, more user-friendly, and -- well, potentially more dangerous.


Business Opportunities Now:
---Technologies that help enhance imaging
---Computer programs that help display more effective models
---Medical technology companies creating diagnostic tests
---Insurance and pharmaceutical companies (ways to use the info)
---Target market for certain treatments and medicines
---Privacy / encryption devices -- my personal feeling is that if it gets to the point that one can do a scan of a person without one's permission (remote scans at at distance, or even at places such as airports), it might be useful to have an internal device that scrambles the scan -- a kind of portable force-field. It would also be helpful to be able to encrypt the information once it is obtained.

In many ways, the predictions have already come true. The predictions are useful, nevertheless, because it is possible to gauge the nature and direction of trends, as well as their volume and impact. In addition, it's possible to identify where and how one might take advantage of opportunities to develop new products and services.

Top 12 Technologies Innovations by 2025: Implications for E-Learning and Oil and Gas Production

Futurists and analysts at the research and consulting firm, Social Technologies, listed what they project to be the top areas of technology innovation through 2025. The innovations are listed below, with speculations about potential implications for the future of oil and gas production in mature basins. Yearbook Experts at ExpertClick distributed the explanations, responses by E-Learning Queen and midcontinentoil.com.

(Note: Back by popular demand: link to Britney Spears "Construct Constantly Deconstructing" post)

1. Personalized medicine-
* the creation of an individual's genome map for a retail price of less than $1,000
* the correlation of specific genes and proteins with specific cancers, Alzheimer's, heart diseases, and diabetes, which will allow both physicians and patients to anticipate, plan for, and mitigate, if not cure, DNA-based health challenges
* the development of pharmaceuticals to treat gene-based diseases (medical treatments that replace surgeries and chemotherapy).

People with access to such breakthroughs can live longer, work longer. How much will these cost? We will have to see. Transfer of skills can be more long-lived. However, it also sets up possibilities of gamer vs. boomer generation tensions. If the studies are true, gamers really do think differently than boomers and the WWII generation. Gamers are said to be multi-taskers and independent thinkers; while boomers are said to be more linear in their approach to problem-solving. This is a gross generalization, but numerous books and articles have been published, so people are tending to perceive and believe that there is a difference. Perception is reality, so it will be good to pay attention.

2. Distributed energy
* hybrid vehicles
* advanced electricity storage devices and batteries
* design of new power systems with fuel-switching flexibility.

For all the people who are eager to exploit the undeveloped reserves of gas and oil in mature basins, it might not be a bad idea to diversify into some of the "green" energy sources. The oil in the ground is money in the bank. Save it.

E-Learning: Solar-powered devices (phones, laptops, cameras, mobile devices).

3. Pervasive computing-
* very simple and inexpensive computing devices with integrated wireless telephone and Internet capabilities (the worldwide $100 computer)
* the "semantic Web," enabled by Web data that automatically self-organizes, allowing search tools or software agents to actually identify the relevance of Web pages (not just find keywords on them)
* intelligent interfaces, in some cases enabled by virtual reality.

This means much better information in the field, and better monitoring devices at the wellhead or in pipelines. Corrosion control, gas compressors, scrubbers, gas conditioning, nitrogen or salt water injection, etc. will be affected. The key is to develop the appropriate chemical processes and technologies to piggyback on pervasive computing.

E-Learning: it may be hard to find a course that is strictly face-to-face.

4. Nanotechnologies for innovative materials and fibers-Although they have received much attention, the R&D of nanotechnogies is progressing very slowly. But the experts expect major breakthroughs to occur within the next two decades, including inexpensive ways to produce mass quantities of nano-fibers.

Nanotechnology in terms of catalytic agents and devices to enhance imaging (downhole logging tools) will probably be the first place for applications.

Improved performance in chips? This could expand computing capabilities. In terms of e-learning: there could be a boom in engineering, science and math programs.

5. Biomarkers for health-
* individualized, private, and self-administered diagnostics, as well as home diagnostic kits that detect early signs of diabetes, heart disease, and types of cancers
* individualized exercise equipment and regimens for individualized benefits (weight control, blood pressure, blood sugar, etc.)
* advanced CAT scans, MRIs, and brain scans to identify disorders earlier and more accurately at less cost.

How about biomarkers for oil? This could be a breakthrough in terms of developing a better sense of fluid flow through fractures and faults. What is the provenance of the oil? Where is it going? Where did it come from? (this is sounding like a Gauguin painting)...

Education online: It is important to provide access to all kinds of programs so that individuals are able to equip themselves to be able to participate in the new economies. Online programs in medicine, biomedical engineering will be in demand.

6. Bio-energy-
* high-energy (as measured in British thermal units, or Btu) blends of gasoline and diesel with biofuels (beyond the ethanol blends known today)
* biomass production of a methanol that can be used as a fuel for fuel cells
* new discoveries in plant genetics and biotechnologies specifically for energy content.

Genetically modified corn for ethanol is a good idea. However, it may continue to be true that it actually costs more fuel to raise the corn and process it into ethanol than to produce oil and refine it into gasoline. If government subsidies continue, it's probably a given that this will happen. If not -- perhaps more ways to fuel municipal turbines using locally generated methane would be the answer.

E-Learning: more online labs and simulations to test new products and procedures. The labs can be online or, onsite, but remotely accessed.

7. Micro-flexible manufacturing and processes-
* advanced computer-aided design and control
* multiple variable and inexpensive sensors linked with computers
* expert systems and advanced pattern-recognition software for very tight quality control.

The implications for the oil field are quite interesting. This could mean custom pumps, custom valves and gauges, and chemical applications for existing wells.

8. Universal water-
* ultra-fine filters (probably from nanotechnology)
* development of energy sources for desalination and purification, including hybrid systems, especially solar power.

This is good, but it does not solve the problem of inland water. In some parts of the MidContinent, the depletion of the Ogalalla is already posing real problems. Drilling requires drilling fluids. Secondary recovery requires injection. Would it be possible to desalinate the water produced with oil and then sell it at a reasonable price to cities and municipalities. Places like Dallas could obtain water from the Barnett Shale. Eventually, the water would be more valuable than the gas.

9. Carbon containment-
* affordable and effective carbon capture and storage technologies and systems for coal-burning power plants
* new emission controls for transportation vehicles
* containment systems for methane.

This will be very important in the production of natural gas. It will also be extremely important in gas-powered electricity generators and in refining.

10. Engineered agriculture-
* identification of specific genomes for desired growing and use qualities
* GMOs as the next generation of hybrid plants and crops
* crops designed specifically for energy content and conversion.

Animal husbandry is probably affected as well. There are undoubtedly consequences and impacts on MidContinent oil. Just how big will the hogs in the hog farms be? What will it do to us to eat this stuff? We have all heard the rumors of what eating growth-hormone laced dairy products does.

ELearning: new needs for ethics courses. Increased data sharing, information sharing, but also a heightened need for individuals to be able to create their own security systems.

11. Ambient surveillance-
* security cameras linked with computers with expert systems/pattern recognition
* multiple integrated sensors (including remote sensing)
* radio frequency (RF) tags for people and valuables.

There are enormous possibilities in monitoring production. Ethical issues abound in all the possibilities.

E-learning implications: no more cheating on tests! (J)
Personalize encryption and security, new kinds of firewalls and access monitors.

12. Intelligent transport-
* organized and coordinated personal transportation through wireless computer networks, information systems, and Internet access
* onboard sensors and computers for smart vehicles
* next generations of GPS, navigation, and "questmap".

This will help coordinate production on demand, and timely delivery of oil field chemicals.

E-Learning: more need to understand how to integrate web applications and to be able to easily create one's own set of mashups.

digg it! del.icio.us Newsvine Facebook

sphere

Useful Links:

Social Technologies: http://www.socialtechnologies.com/

Expert Click: http://expertclick.com/

Fayetteville Shale: http://www.fayettevilleshalegas.com

Barnett Shale: http://www.barnettshalegas.com